Abstract
Background. The majority of developed prediction models for future exacerbations included smoking patients with COPD, but they may be not representative for non-smoking COPD patient population.
Aim. The aim of the study was to evaluate the significance of measuring the levels of cytokines, immunoglobulins, the percentages of lymphocyte subpopulations in peripheral blood as well as clinical parameters in order to assess the risk of future exacerbations in both non-smoking and smoking COPD patients.
Methods. Twenty eight inflammatory biomarkers in peripheral blood and eight clinical parameters were quantified in 37 COPD patients and 41 healthy controls. The validation cohort consisted of 31 patients with COPD. Both groups of COPD patients and healthy subjects included both smokers and non-smokers. Patients with infrequent exacerbations were defined as those who had no or one exacerbation in a year. We determined frequent exacerbations as two or more exacerbations. Logistic regression analysis was used to develop the prediction model.
Results. The final model to predict frequent exacerbations within a year included four variables: VEGF, C-reactive protein, number of exacerbations in the previous year and CAT score, with sensitivity of 94.4%, specificity of 80.0%, and a C-statistics of 0.85.
Conclusion. Our newly developed prediction model can help clinicians to predict the risk of future exacerbations in individual non-smoking and smoking patients with COPD.
- © 2014 ERS